Clarksons Research to Address US Trade Policies and Market Trends at Nor-Shipping 2025

Clarksons Research is set to make a significant appearance at Nor-Shipping 2025 in Oslo, where discussions will heavily feature the impact of new US trade policies and evolving market trends on the global shipping industry. The event provides a crucial platform for industry leaders to address current challenges and future directions.

• New US trade policies are causing uncertainty for Norwegian shipowners.
• Clarksons Research will present updated market data and projections.
• The shipping industry continues its green transition despite geopolitical challenges.

New US trade policies, characterized by on-again, off-again tariffs, have introduced significant uncertainty into the market. Knut Arild Hareide, CEO of the Norwegian Shipowners’ Association, expressed frustration over these fluctuating policies, which complicate decision-making for his members. This sentiment highlights a key concern for the global shipping community, particularly as the Norwegian-owned fleet ranks among the world’s most valuable.

Clarksons Research, exhibiting at Booth B05-04c, will share comprehensive market data and projections. Steve Gordon, Global Head of Clarksons Research, provided key insights ahead of the event:

• Cargo Movement: Global shipping is projected to move 12.6 billion tonnes of cargo in 2025, supported by a fleet of 2.5 billion DWT.
• Shipbuilding Output: Shipbuilding output is expected to increase by 4% year-over-year to 74.1 million GT in 2025.
• Regional Shipbuilding Market Shares (2025):
  • China: 53%
  • South Korea: 27%
  • Japan: 14%
  • Europe: 4%
  • US: 0.1%
• Newbuild Ordering: Newbuild ordering in the first five months of 2025 is down approximately 50% year-over-year, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties.
• Orderbook Backlogs: Strong orderbook backlogs are noted in gas, container, and car carrier segments, with an improving backlog for cruise vessels.

Despite current geopolitical challenges and trade disruptions, the shipping industry’s green transition remains a critical underlying trend. Emissions regulations continue to be adopted, driving investments in green technology and emphasizing the need for fleet renewal. Key data points include:

• Alternative Fuel Capability: 52% of the orderbook by tonnage (29% by number) is now alternative fuel capable.
• Alternative Fuelled Fleet: 8% of the global fleet’s carrying capacity is currently alternative fueled, projected to increase to 20% by 2030.
• Aging Fleet: The global fleet has an average age of 13.2 years (GT weighted), up from 9.7 years in 2013.
• Energy Saving Technologies (ESTs): Over 12,115 ships, accounting for more than 41% of fleet tonnage, have been fitted with significant ESTs.
• Port Infrastructure Lag: Investments in port infrastructure and the availability of green fuels continue to lag, with limited ports offering methanol bunkering.

Clarksons Research estimates that shipping’s global GHG emissions increased by approximately 4% year-over-year in 2024, surpassing pre-COVID-19 levels. This rise is attributed to increased time at sea, some speed increases, and trade growth. In 2025, energy cargo is expected to constitute 38% of global seaborne trade, with offshore oil and gas accounting for 16% of global energy production, underscoring the dual importance of energy transition and energy security for the maritime sector.

• New US trade policies have Norwegian owners exasperated ahead of Nor-Shipping, TradeWinds.
• Clarksons Research at Nor-Shipping 2025, Maritime Gateway.