The global containership orderbook has skyrocketed to levels reminiscent of the 2000s, with new orders exceeding 10.4 million TEUs. The ratio of the orderbook to the existing fleet now stands at 31.7%, the highest since 2010. According to data analytics firm Linerlytica, this trend raises concerns about a potential repeat of the oversupply phenomenon that marked the 2004–2009 period, which led to a decade of depressed freight rates and significant losses.
However, today’s market differs in key ways. Back then, nearly all players—from major shipping companies to smaller regional operators—placed massive orders, fueling explosive fleet growth. In contrast, current orders (excluding feeder vessels) are largely concentrated among dominant liner operators like MSC, Evergreen, and Cosco, who possess strong liquidity and strategic expansion plans.
For example, MSC’s orderbook stands at around 2.4 million TEUs—equivalent to the entire fleet capacity of Hapag-Lloyd—further cementing its global dominance. Evergreen is evaluating offers for new 14,000 TEU LNG dual-fuel vessels, while Cosco is under pressure from Beijing to expand its fleet beyond 5 million TEUs by 2026.
Another key difference from the past is the outlook on the global economy. In the mid-2000s, companies operated under the assumption that the market boom would last indefinitely. Today, despite aggressive expansion by liners, the industry is more cautious and aware of underlying risks. Geopolitical tensions, tariffs, and global trade uncertainty contribute to a murky outlook, while shifts in demand—such as the early end to this year’s peak season—make capacity management even more critical.
Fleet age also presents both opportunities and challenges. A significant portion of containerships is aging and will need to be scrapped in the coming years. This process, combined with decarbonization requirements and new environmental regulations, could act as a “safety valve” against oversupply.
Lessons from the Past
Still, the path forward is far from certain. History shows that overly ambitious strategies can lead to collapse. The 2016 bankruptcy of South Korea’s Hanjin Shipping—then the country’s largest and the world’s seventh-largest carrier—is a prime example. Its unchecked expansion and lack of capacity control sent shockwaves through the supply chain.
Germany also experienced a boom-and-bust cycle, with the collapse of the KG Funds model. After 2010, many German-owned vessels were seized by banks and transferred to Greek ownership.
Today, liner alliances like Ocean Alliance and Gemini Cooperation employ varied capacity management strategies, including blank sailings and vessel idling. This lack of coordination, analysts warn, could further pressure freight rates as new vessel deliveries clash with subdued demand.
The market, having benefited from unexpected profits during the pandemic’s supply chain disruptions, also capitalized on the situation in the Red Sea. Rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope significantly increased ton-miles, offering a temporary boost to vessel utilization.
Despite concerns, many believe the current situation isn’t entirely comparable to the previous orderbook boom. Linerlytica notes that while the industry stands at a critical crossroads, today’s more mature approach, tighter regulations, and aging fleet may lead to a different outcome.
“The real challenge will be whether companies can strike the right balance,” analysts conclude.
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The Maritime-Hub Editorial Team
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Maritime-Hub. Readers are advised to research this information before making decisions based on it.
