The shipping industry is gradually showing signs of fatigue, with shipbrokers highlighting a slowdown following three years of robust ordering activity and substantial investment. Current data reflect a decline in both the orderbook and the prices of newbuild vessels.
According to an analysis by Clarksons Research, demand for new ships has decreased by an impressive 57% annually, already impacting vessel prices downward.
Specifically, prices for newbuild ships have fallen by 1.2% since the beginning of 2025. While this may seem modest, shipbrokers note that it signals a trend reversal, considering that vessel prices had been at historic highs until recently.
Divergent Trends Across Segments
The same data reveal varying behaviors across different shipping sectors. The most significant price pressures are observed in the tanker segment, where prices have dropped by 5% since the start of 2025. Dry bulk carriers follow this with a 2.2% decrease, and containerships with a 1.4% decline.
This trend reflects a substantial drop in demand in specific areas and marks the beginning of a price correction cycle from high initial levels. Danish Ship Finance’s monthly report highlights that weakening demand will persist in the short term.
In this environment, reduced interest from shipowners and a decline in freight rates, initially established at the start of the year, intensify competition among shipyards for new orders. The situation is particularly critical for smaller yards without securing long-term contracts.
Predictions from Industry Analysts
Analysts at BRS predict further deceleration in dry bulk markets, which could delay or even ‘freeze’ future investment decisions. “We expect ongoing global uncertainties and increased pressure on the shipbuilding industry to push vessel prices downward. The reduction could exceed 10% within 2025, depending on vessel type and size,” states the firm.
Similarly, VesselsValue reports very low activity in new orders for bulk carriers, tankers, containerships, and gas carriers, with only 369 orders placed from January to April 2025, down 37% compared to the same period in 2024, when 590 orders were recorded. Compared to 2023, when 500 orders were made during the same months, the decrease now stands at 26%.
The breakdown for 2025 orders is as follows:
- 136 bulk carriers (an 18% decrease year-on-year)
- 97 tankers (66% decrease compared to 2024)
- 23 gas carriers (over 80% drop relative to 2024)
- 113 containerships (up from just 18 in 2024)
The sharp decline in tanker and gas carrier orders is the main driver behind the overall drop. Conversely, the significant increase in containership orders may indicate a strategic shift among some shipping companies.
Market Outlook and Challenges
Despite the recent downturn, the industry remains cautious. Analysts attribute this trend to economic uncertainty, high shipbuilding costs, and the waiting for more straightforward environmental regulation guidelines. The market’s cautious stance suggests a reevaluation period before a potential recovery or adjustment.
